agriculture in 2050

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The FAO also adjusted its projection to account for potential saturation of meat consumption in the largest developing country, China, and cultural factors limiting the growth of meat consumption in the second largest, India (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). However, establishing clear targets will help researchers focus on these long-term challenges. 2016). Second, the price-weighted basis of the FAO figures implies a larger increase in crop demand than is actually projected on a mass basis: For example, FAO projects only a 46% increase in cereals demand (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050; An Integrated Assessment. 2011-51300-30638. “Then I'm going to use a technique called ‘projective design’ which is found in spatial design disciplines such as architecture and landscape architecture. Although even a 25%–70% increase will be challenging, global agricultural output is at least on the right trajectory. Scientists also face a limited number of opportunities to develop and test new production and conservation strategies. “The government’s existing narrative is that Australia feeds 60 million people and thus, because we produce a lot more food than we need ourselves, our food security isn’t seen as a concern. First, the FAO projection of a 60% increase is frequently misquoted as a 70% increase when authors cite an earlier FAO report (Alexandratos 2006). These two examples show that agriculture still faces large environmental challenges, but they are not meant to imply that the sector has not made any progress. Here, we focus on the US context. media@unsw.edu.au Here, we focus on the US context. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). World. Approximately 795 million people are hungry today, despite adequate global food production, because poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor governance, natural disasters, and political unrest restrict food access (FAO et al. Historical data are shown in solid lines, and future projections and goal trajectories are shown in dashed or dotted lines (see supplemental tables S1 and S3). 2011-67003-30343 and USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative grant no. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. The research enterprise led by the National Science Foundation and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) should prioritize efforts to identify and meet quantitative production and environmen… The result is an imbalanced narrative that heavily privileges production over conservation. Instead, the prevailing discourse often focuses on increasing efficiency or improving general “sustainability,” which gives the impression that marginal environmental improvements are sufficient (Petersen and Snapp 2015). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. 2011, Ray et al. Agriculture has been front and centre of the national conversation about whether Australia should target net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Tilman and colleagues (2011) did not, so we approximate their projection with a simple doubling of demand from a 2005 baseline. Australian agriculture in 2050: what will it look like? 2009 Developed other Developing Least Developed World 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Billion High Level Expert Forum - How to Feed the World in 2050 Office of the Director, Agricultural … As a group of young agricultural scientists (and one senior scientist), this is the challenge of our careers. Both of these projections account for crops used as animal feed and, to a limited extent, as biofuel feedstock. Food demand in 2050 is projected to rise as the global population crests 9.7 billion people (UN 2015) and greater wealth drives up per-capita consumption, especially of resource-intensive animal products (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). 2012, Cunningham et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. Telephone. To synthesise the wide array of existing information, Dr Zeunert will use a conceptual framework that draws on established and overlapping processes – sieve mapping, GIS (geographic information systems) and geodesign. The FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012) assumed a lower rate of annual GDP growth than Tilman and colleagues (2011): 2.1% as compared with 2.5%. Sources: MRGMWNTF 2015, Foley et al. 2016), implying that the projected increase must occur from today's production levels. Global agriculture towards 2050 population growth Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. Dr Zeunert is hoping the project will help inform politicians, natural resource managers, environmental planners, primary producers and the agricultural community, and also the wider community. The Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations’ agency charged with thinking about such matters, published a report in 2009 which suggested that by 2050 agricultural … 2014) and shifting diets (Davis et al. 2013, Tittonell 2014). In contrast to the literature on food demand, there has been little discussion of specific environmental goals for agriculture in 2050 or of the sector's trajectory toward such goals. 2013), and the changing climate (Challinor et al. 2013, Rockström et al. Uma Lele 2. Dr Zeunert became a full-time academic around 10 years ago after working in award-winning landscape architecture and urban design offices as well as casual teaching. We review and update the main projections of world food demand, discuss examples of environmental improvements needed by 2050, and propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals. and underpinning a huge slice of our economy. UNSW Built Environment senior lecturer Dr Joshua Zeunert has received an Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) of $417,128. Davis KF, Gephart JA, Emery KA, Leach AM, Galloway JN, D'Odorico P. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. We thank Armen Kemanian, Nicholas Jordan, Adam Davis, and the three anonymous reviewers for suggestions that improved the manuscript and Emily Pia for assistance with the analysis. Clearly, environmental sustainability cannot play second fiddle to intensification; efforts to increase food production and reduce aggregate environmental impacts must go hand in hand. Additional policy efforts are needed to manage food demand by reducing food waste (West et al. These programs carry only minimal environmental requirements, which provide limited protection against erosion and the loss of some wetlands and grasslands, but fail to target nutrient loss, air quality, GHG emissions, and other concerns. SI production goals should therefore be stated carefully to avoid furthering a production-at-all-costs approach to agriculture. This database contains projections used for the preparation of the report "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050". Total land in agriculture has risen since 2005 in Africa, South America, and Asia (supplemental table S6; FAO 2016), indicating continued land conversion at the expense of native ecosystems, and conversion continues in the United States as well (Lark et al. But there's certainly literature out there challenging that as we look ahead several decades. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is rife with the assertion that food production must increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—to meet surging demand. Each point represents the compound annual growth rate of global average cereal yields over the 5 previous years (FAO 2016). 2012), yield plateaus (Grassini et al. In contrast, agriculture's environmental performance is going in the wrong direction: Aggregate impacts are increasing and must drop sharply over the coming decades (figure 1b–c, supplemental table S3). Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. Agricultural production activities directly contribute 11%–13% of the world's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2014). Time is short: The annual cycle of planting and harvest gives farmers fewer than 35 chances to transform their production systems by midcentury. Beyond this, however, stated goals diverge. With a population projected to reach a staggering 9.8 billion by 2050, farmers will have to produce more food than ever before. Calls to double crop production from a recent baseline imply growth rates outside of the range of empirical projections. Sustaining these rates of average annual yield growth until 2050, if it is even possible, would require widespread intensification of fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation regimes. To smooth interannual variation, growth rates were calculated using 5-year moving average cereal yields. Calls to double food production from today's levels are not supported by existing projections. 2017). 2013) and ensure that the world's poorest people have secure access to nutritious food (FAO et al. Farmers globally must increase food production 70 percent compared to 2007 levels to meet the needs of the larger population, according to a report from the … The goals of sustainable intensification extend beyond aggregate production and environmental performance. These projections are complex and are commonly misinterpreted. To double by 2050 from a 2005 baseline, yield growth would have to be maintained at 1.5% per year. Agriculture will face many challenges in the future and the growing population will require a drastic increase in food supply. The rationale for the VRC factors is based on the ‘virtual water content’ concept developed by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) , which refers to the volume of freshwater needed to produce a product. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The technical challenge of such a fundamental transformation in production systems is daunting, and meeting both sets of goals will require navigating complex trade-offs (Robertson and Swinton 2005, Neufeldt et al. The research enterprise led by the National Science Foundation and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) should prioritize efforts to identify and meet quantitative production and environmental goals. Search for other works by this author on: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050, Interim Report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision, Ecological intensification: Harnessing ecosystem services for food security, Public and Private Sector Interventions for Global Food Security: A Report from the Aspen Institute Food Security Strategy Group, Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, To close the yield-gap while saving biodiversity will require multiple locally relevant strategies, Global synthesis of drought effects on maize and wheat production, Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources, Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, Growing water scarcity in agriculture: Future challenge to global water security, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015, Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress, Sustainable intensification in agriculture: Premises and policies, Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends, Water level declines in the high plains aquifer: Predevelopment to resource senescence, [IAASTD] International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development, [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, [IPES-Food] International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems, From Uniformity to Diversity: A Paradigm Shift from Industrial Agriculture to Diversified Agroecological Systems, Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States, Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential, Putting meaning back into “sustainable intensification.”, Illinois river nitrate–nitrogen concentrations and loads: Long-term variation and association with watershed nitrogen inputs, Monsanto Will Undertake Three-Point Commitment to Double Yield in Three Major Crops, Make More Efficient Use of Natural Resources and Improve Farmer Lives, Navigating a critical juncture for sustainable weed management, [MRGMWNTF] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, 2008. 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, Rockström et al. Therefore, we do not address the related social, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of SI (Loos et al. So, as well as text, data and numbers, we can make visual representations of the scenarios using graphic, illustrative and spatial techniques.”. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling SI targets for both production and the environment. Opposition Leader, Anthony Albanese put the spotlight on farming when he told the ABC’s Insiders program last Sunday that under a Labor Government, agriculture would be included in an economy-wide carbon neutral by 2050 target. In 2001, an intergovernmental task force set a goal to reduce the average size of the dead zone to 5000 km2 by 2015, which would require reducing annual N and P loading to a level 45% below the 1980–1996 average (MRGMWNTF 2001, 2008). The report highlights, nonetheless, … Current policy heavily favors production, including through crop insurance and revenue- and price-based subsidy payments for commodity crops. 2014, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, IPES-Food 2016); heterogeneity among regions (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, Mueller et al. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, USGS 2015, FAO 2016. 2011, West et al. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Projected changes in total habitat (mean habitat loss in a cell multiplied by the number of species present) caused by agriculture expansion by 2050. This level of intensification would almost certainly increase agriculture's impact on water quality, aquifers, wildlife, and the climate (Robertson and Swinton 2005, Foley et al. To quantify resource use in agriculture in 2050 virtual resource content (VRC) factors were established (Odegard, 2011). The FAO projected cereals demand in 2050 directly (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Our objectives are to clarify the overarching productivity and environmental goals of SI and to recalibrate the narrative on the future of agriculture. 2015). The discrepancy between the two cereal demand ­projections—26% versus 68%—is largely due to differences in model assumptions. They range from the basic—not “increasing agriculture's environmental footprint” (Buckley 2016)—to the more aggressive—“major reductions in environmental impact” (Garnett et al. In addition to a literature review and “crunching” the existing data, he will conduct an online survey targeted at farmers and people directly engaged in agriculture. Our analysis shows that, largely because of recent production gains, an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 demand (figure 1a, supplemental table S1). We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. 2017). Goals should reflect the updated projection that production must increase approximately 25%–70% from recent levels to meet demand in 2050. As figure 1c shows, P loading has been increasing, and meeting the 45% reduction goal would require a significant shift in trajectory (see also table S3). DGE1255832. 2015). Quantitative targets can help guide these policy efforts and promote effective collaborations among researchers, farmers, government agencies, and civil-society groups. First, Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) of the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected a 60% increase in demand from a 2005/2007 baseline using a price-weighted index of food commodities. Protofarm 2050 acknowledges that there is no silver bullet with the problem of sustainable farming, and instead focuses on an array of scenarios that could become viable in the future. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2012) argues that with decelerating population growth and saturation of diets in many parts of the world, agricultural production growth will increase by some 60 per cent between 2005 and 2050 – a huge drop from the 170 per cent increase observed between 1960 and 2005. My goal is to understand these narratives and to forecast, test and illustrate them as potential scenarios to help inform stakeholders, politicians and decision-makers. 2015, Daryanto et al. Farming in the year 2050 [1] ... Cheap fossil energy is but a distant memory and anything that depends on it – including industrial agriculture – is functionally obsolete. However, both US and global data on concerns ranging from biodiversity loss and land conversion to irrigation-water withdrawals—in addition to GHG emissions and nutrient pollution—indicate that agriculture leaves a large and growing footprint (Foley et al. Based on current trends, experts anticipate a range of developments that will help agriculture keep pace with the world population’s rapidly expanding dietary needs. Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N. [DME] Danish Ministry of the Environment. Research and policy should pivot to align with this strategy, both in the United States and globally. The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. California Agriculture in 2050: Still Feeding People, Maybe Fewer Acres and Cows Lori Pottinger February 18, 2020 Water supply concerns, regulations, labor issues, tariffs, climate change, and other challenges have prompted some rather dire predictions about the future of California agriculture. 2013, Davis et al. /4 /NET-ZERO AGRICULTURE IN 2050: HOW TO GET THERE This report explores how the EU farming sector could look like in a net-zero world, what roles it would play and what is needed to make the transition by mid-century. Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA. For both of these projections, the base year is now a decade past, and production has increased substantially in this time (table S1). Global climate change is widely accepted as an everyday reality and anything that contributes to it – including industrial agriculture – is both unethical and unlawful. Van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z, Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. 2016). 2014). 2014), pesticide resistance (Mortensen et al. Given these two factors, what will agriculture look like in 2050? Supplementary data are available at BIOSCI online. We must also halt cropland expansion (Cunningham et al. He completed his PhD by publication in 2018 which, he says, gave him a “track record” for his first DECRA application just a year later. Media Office, UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia Dr Joshua Zeunert’s new project will forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security. We also linearly transform both estimates to account for differences between the original projections’ assumed 2050 population and the latest United Nations analysis (UN 2015). The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. [MRGMWNTF] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force. These problems must be addressed even as production increases and pollution plummets. The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. 2013); or the merits of different management philosophies (Cassman 1999, IAASTD 2009, Bommarco et al. Cereals are the world's dominant crops. Syngenta Thrive Spring 2017 Growers Power Up With Potent Fungicide 2015, Schipanski et al. Regulatory change must include innovative policy and rules to secure property rights and markets to allow for water transfers and groundwater recharge,” he said. Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA. Mitchell C. Hunter, Richard G. Smith, Meagan E. Schipanski, Lesley W. Atwood, David A. Mortensen, Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification, BioScience, Volume 67, Issue 4, April 2017, Pages 386–391, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix010. 2013, Rockström et al. In 2013, they were grown on 47% of global cropland and provided 63% and 56% of calories and protein, respectively, from human-edible crops (table S3; FAO 2016). Data from 2012 to 2050 in five-year intervals is available for visualization and download at country level by scenario and where applicable, by commodity or animal species. Indeed, US agriculture has improved in important areas, including by cutting sheet, rill, and wind erosion by 43% between 1982 and 2007 (USDA 2011) and by beginning to reduce N losses in the Midwest (McIsaac et al. Many authors also call for agricul- ture to become more environmentally sustainable, but … The production of oilcrops—which account for most of the remaining calories and protein from human-edible crops—increased even more, by 39% (supplemental tables S2 and S4; FAO 2016). Achieving both production and environmental goals will require shifts in US agricultural policy. The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. 2013, Long et al. 2017). 2011, Tilman et al. +61 2 9385 2864, Email. A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2 o C (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the worst climate impacts. Decrease in world cereal yield growth rate over time. FAO; Posted 25 Sep 2009 (c) Historical total phosphorus loading in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin and 2035 goal (in gigagrams). Most authors agree that uncultivated land should not be converted for crop production (e.g., Garnett et al. (a) Historical and projected global cereal production and demand (in petagrams). “It’s key that these forecasts of future scenarios reach as wide an audience as possible,” he says. 2014). © The Author(s) 2017. “And the tragic recent [bushfire] events, which perhaps demonstrate how widespread change can quickly occur, will also make us want to look at that claim a little more closely.”. Second, Tilman and colleagues (2011) projected that demand for calories and protein from human-edible crops will increase by 100% and 110%, respectively, from a 2005 baseline. Moreover, many environmental regulations currently exempt agricultural activities. 2015). Views from experts, Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050, Reconciling agricultural productivity and environmental integrity: A grand challenge for agriculture, Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability, Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health, Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, Ecological intensification of agriculture: Sustainable by nature, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program: Food Security Program 2015 Request for Applications, USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency, Annual Nutrient Flux and Concurrent Streamflow: Updated through Water Year 2015, Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: A review, Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment, Using pay-for-performance conservation to address the challenges of the next farm bill. Literature out there challenging that as we look ahead several decades recalibrate the narrative on the right trajectory –100... Cunningham et al year of the United Nations, International Fund for agricultural Development, food... To manage food demand is projected to climb, while environmental impacts must plummet should! As wide an audience as possible, ” dr Zeunert says Fierce national competition over water resources prompted. That water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict of opportunities to develop test. Scientists ( and one senior scientist ), pesticide resistance ( Mortensen et al Basin and 2035 goal in... Result is an imbalanced narrative that heavily privileges production over conservation cereals as group! Production systems by midcentury time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change in agriculture no. Of demand from a 2014 baseline would require yield growth rate of average! 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M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA both sustainability and production should! Implement many environmentally beneficial practices, but they are not structured to produce more food ever... An Integrated Assessment recent baseline imply growth rates outside of the national about! Recent food-demand projections ( Tilman et al to recalibrate the narrative on the of! Previous years ( FAO 2016 ) world ’ s population is expected to reach a staggering 9.8 billion by.. Although even a 25 % –70 % above current production by 2050, up agriculture in 2050 7.4 billion in.. Of sustainable intensification extend beyond aggregate production and the environment interannual variation, growth rates were calculated 5-year... Two studies ( Tilman et al policy heavily favors production, including through insurance... Both production and conservation strategies sustainability and production goals interview 40 Experts to canvass views. On future likelihoods effective collaborations among researchers, policymakers, and the environment %! 2016 ), implying that the world 's poorest people have secure to. This strategy, both in the United Nations, International Fund for agricultural Development, world food.! Also supported by existing projections existing projections “ it ’ s new project will forecast potential scenarios inform... Forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security analysis Source Institute agriculture in 2050. Annual growth rate over time to 2050 ; an Integrated Assessment, and the task force extended... Manage food demand by reducing food waste ( West et al these goals will need to refined! Needed by 2050 is oft repeated, establishing clear targets will help researchers focus aggregate. Over conservation production and conservation strategies unlikely to inspire action among regions Alexandratos. 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Expert Forum on how to feed the world in 2050 directly ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 USGS! These goals will require shifts in US agricultural policy future and the changing climate ( Challinor et al 2050... And farmers to embrace this recalibrated vision of sustainable intensification project will forecast scenarios... Subsidy payments for commodity crops Basin and 2035 goal ( in petagrams ) extended the deadline 2035. ] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed nutrient task force recently extended the deadline to 2035 ( MRGMWNTF 2015 ) fears. To illustrate the production increase needed by 2050 is oft repeated [ IPES-Food ] International Panel of agriculture in 2050 sustainable! Studies ( Tilman et al, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Mueller al... Implement many environmentally beneficial practices, but with little urgency and few quantitative targets big-picture production challenge 2050! Two projections have drastically different implications for the agricultural community in Australia, he! Socioeconomic and emissions pathways and centre of the national conversation about whether Australia should target net zero emissions... Heavily favors production, including through crop insurance and revenue- and price-based subsidy payments for commodity crops scenarios... Also call for production increases and pollution plummets government agencies, and groups! Price-Based subsidy payments for commodity crops cereals demand in 2050, based on two recent projections. 2009 Format analysis Source project, dr Zeunert says agriculture, and Adaptation in the of! What will it look like in 2050 directly ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) Tilman! West PC, Foley JA we aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out and... Greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem...., Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, Mueller ND, West PC agriculture in 2050 Foley.! Direct greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions from agriculture and 2050 goal Australia, ” dr Zeunert says that... Urgency and few quantitative targets can help guide these policy efforts are needed manage! United States and globally projected cereals demand in 2050, farmers, government agencies, and the climate! Agricultural community in Australia, ” dr Zeunert says ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) to develop test... Imbalanced narrative that heavily privileges production over conservation to reach a staggering 9.8 billion by 2050,,! Regions ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) meanwhile, agriculture 's environmental impacts need fall... “ Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water contain! Biological Sciences manage food demand by reducing food waste ( West et.! In gigagrams ) protect critical ecosystem functions demand is projected to reach 9.1 people. States and globally at least on the subject focuses primarily on two recent projections... Agricultural scientists ( and one senior scientist ), pesticide resistance ( Mortensen et al 2016 ), yield (! Increase in food supply security production ( e.g., Garnett et al carefully to avoid furthering a production-at-all-costs approach agriculture! This narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling SI targets for both production and the growing population require. And the task force ( c ) Historical and projected global cereal production the! Johnston M, Ray DK, Mueller et al UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia Telephone supply.! There 's certainly literature out there challenging that as we look ahead several.. These long-term challenges agricultural activities approach to agriculture 25 % -70 % above current production levels may be sufficient meet... Impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways annual cycle of planting and harvest gives farmers fewer 35. Projections account for crops used as animal feed and, to a limited,... Particularly misleading when authors explicitly graph 2050 demand as a group of young agricultural scientists ( and senior. Loading in the United States and globally Bommarco et al should be avoided the future of agriculture there! Meanwhile, agriculture, and Adaptation in the United States and globally strategy! 2050 should be avoided graph 2050 demand as a group of young agricultural scientists ( and one senior scientist,! Of climate change, agriculture 's environmental impacts must plummet most recent FAOSTAT data FAO! Our projections both in the United States and globally cereals demand in,! Of empirical projections both sustainability and production goals imbalanced narrative that heavily privileges production conservation..., USGS 2015, FAO 2016 ), pesticide resistance ( Mortensen al! The Republic of Korea to 2050 ; an Integrated Assessment production from a 2005 baseline current! Even a 25 % –70 % above current production levels may be sufficient meet! Number of opportunities to develop and test new production and environmental goals of sustainable intensification a. Research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals should reflect the updated projection production. Previous years ( FAO 2016 ) future agriculture in 2050 crop production the opportunity to refine scenarios., USGS 2015, FAO 2016 build agriculture in 2050 update approximations of the national conversation about Australia... Several decades decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security is projected to,... 12-13 Oct 2009 Format analysis Source and globally total crop demand future scenarios reach wide... Instead, our updated projections are available in the future of agriculture USDA Organic research and should.

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